To broker Ryan Ettner of Allendale Inc. the June supply and demand reports from the United States Department of Agriculture has little impact on the markets for June 12.
“Given the fact we didn’t miss expectations by much in any category, I would say we continue to trade as we have been trading,” Ettner said.
The USDA issued its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates which included a 17 million-bushel increase in total U.S. wheat production for 2024/25 at 1.875 billion. Ending stocks were trimmed by eight million bushels from the May report at 758 million due to a slight increase in exports.
In its latest WASDE report, the USDA held its 2023/24 production numbers for corn with Brazil at 122 million tonnes and Argentina at 53 million
However, Ettner stated there’s a very good chance of wheat production increasing as the U.S. winter wheat harvest advances, which would be bearish on prices.
“I think people looking their windows at their wheat saying this crop is going to be better than what the USDA is reporting,” he commented while pointing to the strong likelihood of improved yields in Kansas.
There were no changes from last month for U.S. corn as output remained at 14.860 billion bushels with the carryover holding at 2.102 billion. The USDA also held soybean production at 4.450 billion bushels and ending stocks at 4.360 billion.
“No news is not sideways. No news is slightly bearish,” Ettner said.
As for South American soybean and corn numbers, the broker said very few people in the North American markets are paying attention because its 2024/25 growing season is well underway.
“That’s like watching the Super Bowl and someone saying, ‘can we turn on the soccer game during the commercial?’ We’re not going to do that,” he joked.
The USDA held its 2023/24 production numbers for corn with Brazil at 122 million tonnes and Argentina at 53 million. It’s almost the same story for soybeans with Brazil trimmed back one million tonnes at 153 million while Argentina remained at 50 million.
Ettner suggested it’s best to rely on reports coming out of Brazil and Argentina while the USDA eventually adjusts its numbers.
When it comes to Russia, Ettner advised that it’s best to ignore any current wheat production numbers at this time. While reports say output is to be down 15 to 30 per cent due to severe frosts a few weeks ago, much of that wheat is said to have been replanted.
The USDA cut five million tonnes out of its estimate for 2024/25 Russian wheat, now at 83 million.
Ettner said it’s best to be patient until there’s more concrete data on Russia.
